'Going in to the general election, [McCain's] core voters will be moderate Republicans and right-leaning Independents. In so far as he commits to keep the far right of his party happy, he will be trading Conservative votes for Independent ones...'
Not necessarily. There are some positions which are popular with both the base and the independents; for example, if he convincingly moves right on immigration, that would also be popular among independents, and yet would be something the Democrat couldn't outbid him on. He's started on this, with his promise at CPAC not to move on amnesty "comprehensive immigration reform" until there's "consensus" that the border is secure. He could go further, by, f'r'ex, promising a Big Fucking Fence, and/or stiff employer sanctions (with teeth), and promising to veto "comprehensive" until those measures are actually enacted and stand up in court.
It wouldn't even be hypocritical for him. His goal was a reprise of the '86 deal: Amnesty for illegals here, with strong measures to stop illegal immigration going forward. The problem is, in '86 the amnesty happened, but the "strong measures" got bottled up in court until they ended up being meaningless; restrictionists fear that would happen again. McCain has said that he gets that, that people don't have faith that any such bargain would actually be kept, and that that's why he now favors enforcement/security first, amnesty "comprehensiveness" later.
There are other ways he can solidify the right without alienating the middle. Beating the spending/pork barrel drum, for example. Making the right promises on judges (I don't think anyone is claiming that Bush's judges have cost him popularity in the center, and they're the one thing the right is happiest about with him). Getting slimed by the New York Times (check!).
On top of which, he's a genuine war hero. That counts for a lot with the right wing. There's a limit to how angry we troglodytes can stay with anyone who put in a five year stint at the Hanoi Hilton. It isn't enough to make us vote for someone we disagree with on the issues (sorry, George McGovern), but it is enough to keep us from staying home in a snit when someone we mostly agree with does things to piss us off.
Really, I think McCain's biggest strength is that he's a squishy conservative, and Obama is a solid, down-the-line liberal. And in this country, "conservative" is more popular--witness the fact that every Republican presidential candidate always claims to be a conservative, however squishy a centrist he may be, but every Democrat always claims to be a moderate (or "post-partisan" or "beyond labels"), however liberal he is.
Which is why I'm feeling pretty good about this race. It's going to be tough, yes. But Obama has all sorts of big soft targets that Hillary can't go after (his hard-left votes on guns and abortion, for example), and McCain is going to open up on him. And if he doesn't, well, a few 527s will pick up the slack.
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Not necessarily. There are some positions which are popular with both the base and the independents; for example, if he convincingly moves right on immigration, that would also be popular among independents, and yet would be something the Democrat couldn't outbid him on. He's started on this, with his promise at CPAC not to move on
amnesty"comprehensive immigration reform" until there's "consensus" that the border is secure. He could go further, by, f'r'ex, promising a Big Fucking Fence, and/or stiff employer sanctions (with teeth), and promising to veto "comprehensive" until those measures are actually enacted and stand up in court.It wouldn't even be hypocritical for him. His goal was a reprise of the '86 deal: Amnesty for illegals here, with strong measures to stop illegal immigration going forward. The problem is, in '86 the amnesty happened, but the "strong measures" got bottled up in court until they ended up being meaningless; restrictionists fear that would happen again. McCain has said that he gets that, that people don't have faith that any such bargain would actually be kept, and that that's why he now favors enforcement/security first,
amnesty"comprehensiveness" later.There are other ways he can solidify the right without alienating the middle. Beating the spending/pork barrel drum, for example. Making the right promises on judges (I don't think anyone is claiming that Bush's judges have cost him popularity in the center, and they're the one thing the right is happiest about with him). Getting slimed by the New York Times (check!).
On top of which, he's a genuine war hero. That counts for a lot with the right wing. There's a limit to how angry we troglodytes can stay with anyone who put in a five year stint at the Hanoi Hilton. It isn't enough to make us vote for someone we disagree with on the issues (sorry, George McGovern), but it is enough to keep us from staying home in a snit when someone we mostly agree with does things to piss us off.
Really, I think McCain's biggest strength is that he's a squishy conservative, and Obama is a solid, down-the-line liberal. And in this country, "conservative" is more popular--witness the fact that every Republican presidential candidate always claims to be a conservative, however squishy a centrist he may be, but every Democrat always claims to be a moderate (or "post-partisan" or "beyond labels"), however liberal he is.
Which is why I'm feeling pretty good about this race. It's going to be tough, yes. But Obama has all sorts of big soft targets that Hillary can't go after (his hard-left votes on guns and abortion, for example), and McCain is going to open up on him. And if he doesn't, well, a few 527s will pick up the slack.