xthread: (Default)
xthread ([personal profile] xthread) wrote2011-02-21 12:47 pm

There Oughta Be A Law!

In another venue, someone argued 'the people who caused the mortgage meltdown be in jail?!'

I don't know if any of you, dear readers, happen to hold that view, but, if you do, would you be so kind as to tell me, in general terms, who you think ought to be in jail, and in specific terms, what you think they should be in jail for?

Let me note two important things at the outset: remember that lying to people is usually only against the law if you're doing so to cheat them out of money (which is why Bernie Madoff is in jail), and it's unconstitutional to make laws that make something retroactively illegal.

Got your moral outrage ready? Go!

[identity profile] xthread.livejournal.com 2011-02-22 06:14 am (UTC)(link)
That's a fascinating way of thinking about it.

I wasn't actually looking for evidence, per se, I was curious what your sense of what the data must look like was - that is, I'm more curious how you think about it than I am interested in show me the proof!

(FWIW, I think you have nailed how many people must be conceptualizing the situation)
davidlevine: (Default)

[personal profile] davidlevine 2011-02-22 06:18 am (UTC)(link)
Thanks for making me think about the question!

[identity profile] xthread.livejournal.com 2011-02-22 06:26 am (UTC)(link)
I wonder if I can work up a simple game to show off how speculative bubbles work. I don't think so, if I could someone else would probably have already done it. Which is a pity, because it's useful to be able to tell when you're inside one - although not as useful as one might think, because even when you know that you're inside one, it's not clear what you should do about it. (Ask anyone who bailed out of Tech in 1997 or 1998 because they knew there was a Tech bubble in the stock market, and they didn't want to be long when the bubble popped)

(On the other hand, maybe if I look I will find that someone already has made such a game, which would be neat)
kest: (Default)

[personal profile] kest 2011-02-22 07:01 am (UTC)(link)
I think, pretty much, even if you've realized you're in a bubble, it is very difficult to tell when it might pop, but it is *not* safe to assume that popping is immanent just because you've realized it exists.

[identity profile] nolly.livejournal.com 2011-02-24 07:01 pm (UTC)(link)
I believe Planet Money has been addressing this very question recently.