Politics, part two
Feb. 26th, 2008 02:00 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
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zunger's post, he largely summed up why I think that Obama is a much more appealing candidate. jeffpaulsen raised some points that I'll respond to in a later post, but I wanted to spend a minute talking about the electoral and polling math of the contest in front of us.
McCain has made peace (largely) with the establishment of the Republican party, and is now trying to effectively make peace with the Conservative wing of the party as well. Both of these traits make him less appealing to me, personally, but this isn't a post about my preferences, this is a post about electoral math and political strategy. Going in to the general election, his core voters will be moderate Republicans and right-leaning Independents. In so far as he commits to keep the far right of his party happy, he will be trading Conservative votes for Independent ones; only one problem: there are more Independents than there are Conservatives, so that's not a winning trade. Pretty much no one on the Left will go to the polls just so they can vote against McCain; they're already going to the polls to vote against the Republican candidate.
If Obama is in the general election, he'll get some number of identity politics voters, but his real strength is with ... Moderate (meaning 'leans right') Democrats, and Independents. The Democratic establishment doesn't like him nearly as much as they like Clinton, but it looks like the bulk of the party feels perfectly reasonably about him. This is particularly interesting in a contest between Obama and McCain - while some African-American voters may go to the polls to vote for Obama, even more important is that a lot of Independents will vote for Obama over McCain, if those are the choices in front of them. The choice that Obama tries to present to voters is 'Who do you believe is going to be more uniting and independent, me or Mr McCain?' That's a pretty strong question for Obama. McCain would reply 'Who do you trust more, me or some young whippersnapper?' Normally, that would be an easy question, and McCain would mop up the floor with Obama, and that would be that. Normally. This year, however, a lot of Independents are tired of the Tit for Tat politics that they've watched for most of their lives, and McCain looks thoroughly bought by the Republican Establishment. So if Obama can make the election about 'Independence and the Future,' vs 'Experience and Staying The Course,' the election probably goes to Obama, because very little of the country likes the course that we feel we're on. Adding injury to insult, a lot of McCain's natural constituency are likely not to vote for him, because he's too willing to compromise across the aisle - anything he does to reach out to Moderates will lose him the Conservatives. Oh, and by the way, the reason that the Conservatives are so important to the Republican party is that that's where their campaign workers come from. Winning elections without your Get-Out-The-Vote volunteers is... challenging.
Which brings us to Mrs. Clinton. Most Democratic voters are well-disposed towards her, although she's been turning off some number of Independents with the way that she's campaigned against Obama. She will get some number of cross-over identity votes from Republican women. However, she would also energize a lot of Republicans who would otherwise be debating whether to stay home on principle or not. She's not very appealing to Independents, because she clearly is a creature of Washington politics. She's an Establishment candidate if ever there was one. Her basic campaign statement vs McCain is 'Do you agree with my objectives or with McCain's?' But she's not at all arguing for a change in how things get done in DC, at least, not credibly, and if it comes down to an argument about experience, McCain will toast her hands down. So she's not going to make her campaign about Experience, she'll make it about goals ("Which do you want to pay for? War, or Education? Health Care, or Big Business Profits?"). And she ends up losing the Independent voters in the same way that McCain is losing the Conservative voters... except for the fact that her being in the race will bring a lot of voters in just to vote against her.
So, this (well, and the polling data for the last several years, which I generally read daily) leads me to believe that in a Clinton v. McCain race, Clinton loses to McCain, as she gets all of the Democratic voters (including all of the newly registered Democrats who've been fleeing the Republican party over the last several years), but loses most of the Independents (who break for McCain) and she energizes the Conservatives, who show up and vote for McCain because he's the only game in town. Unless she can persuade Bloomberg to run, in which case he might suck enough Independents away from McCain, but that's really risky. For a start, Bloomberg isn't stupid, and can see that that's how things would come down as well. An Obama v. McCain contest should come down to an Obama win, as the Independent voters break for Obama, he picks up most of the Democratic base (and remember, we're seeing more voters in the primary season than we have ever seen, and the last four years have seen a record migration into the Democratic party - if the next Democratic candidate can pull a new coalition together, it will probably define the Democratic party for the next generation, in the same way that Reagan defined a generation of Republicans), and McCain is left with the Republican Establishment backing him, sans a lot of the Conservatives. And McCain might pick up a bunch of votes from racist democrats as well (although he loses that if he goes for a black conservative veep).
I'll list my polling and electoral math sources in the next part. Also, I'm making the standard Live Boy / Dead Girl assumptions, that no one is nailed with a truly base-destroying attack, that each of the candidates understands their own appeal well enough that there isn't any news that could be released by an opponent that would reduce the support they've got in their own constituencies.
zunger's post, he largely summed up why I think that Obama is a much more appealing candidate. jeffpaulsen raised some points that I'll respond to in a later post, but I wanted to spend a minute talking about the electoral and polling math of the contest in front of us.McCain has made peace (largely) with the establishment of the Republican party, and is now trying to effectively make peace with the Conservative wing of the party as well. Both of these traits make him less appealing to me, personally, but this isn't a post about my preferences, this is a post about electoral math and political strategy. Going in to the general election, his core voters will be moderate Republicans and right-leaning Independents. In so far as he commits to keep the far right of his party happy, he will be trading Conservative votes for Independent ones; only one problem: there are more Independents than there are Conservatives, so that's not a winning trade. Pretty much no one on the Left will go to the polls just so they can vote against McCain; they're already going to the polls to vote against the Republican candidate.
If Obama is in the general election, he'll get some number of identity politics voters, but his real strength is with ... Moderate (meaning 'leans right') Democrats, and Independents. The Democratic establishment doesn't like him nearly as much as they like Clinton, but it looks like the bulk of the party feels perfectly reasonably about him. This is particularly interesting in a contest between Obama and McCain - while some African-American voters may go to the polls to vote for Obama, even more important is that a lot of Independents will vote for Obama over McCain, if those are the choices in front of them. The choice that Obama tries to present to voters is 'Who do you believe is going to be more uniting and independent, me or Mr McCain?' That's a pretty strong question for Obama. McCain would reply 'Who do you trust more, me or some young whippersnapper?' Normally, that would be an easy question, and McCain would mop up the floor with Obama, and that would be that. Normally. This year, however, a lot of Independents are tired of the Tit for Tat politics that they've watched for most of their lives, and McCain looks thoroughly bought by the Republican Establishment. So if Obama can make the election about 'Independence and the Future,' vs 'Experience and Staying The Course,' the election probably goes to Obama, because very little of the country likes the course that we feel we're on. Adding injury to insult, a lot of McCain's natural constituency are likely not to vote for him, because he's too willing to compromise across the aisle - anything he does to reach out to Moderates will lose him the Conservatives. Oh, and by the way, the reason that the Conservatives are so important to the Republican party is that that's where their campaign workers come from. Winning elections without your Get-Out-The-Vote volunteers is... challenging.
Which brings us to Mrs. Clinton. Most Democratic voters are well-disposed towards her, although she's been turning off some number of Independents with the way that she's campaigned against Obama. She will get some number of cross-over identity votes from Republican women. However, she would also energize a lot of Republicans who would otherwise be debating whether to stay home on principle or not. She's not very appealing to Independents, because she clearly is a creature of Washington politics. She's an Establishment candidate if ever there was one. Her basic campaign statement vs McCain is 'Do you agree with my objectives or with McCain's?' But she's not at all arguing for a change in how things get done in DC, at least, not credibly, and if it comes down to an argument about experience, McCain will toast her hands down. So she's not going to make her campaign about Experience, she'll make it about goals ("Which do you want to pay for? War, or Education? Health Care, or Big Business Profits?"). And she ends up losing the Independent voters in the same way that McCain is losing the Conservative voters... except for the fact that her being in the race will bring a lot of voters in just to vote against her.
So, this (well, and the polling data for the last several years, which I generally read daily) leads me to believe that in a Clinton v. McCain race, Clinton loses to McCain, as she gets all of the Democratic voters (including all of the newly registered Democrats who've been fleeing the Republican party over the last several years), but loses most of the Independents (who break for McCain) and she energizes the Conservatives, who show up and vote for McCain because he's the only game in town. Unless she can persuade Bloomberg to run, in which case he might suck enough Independents away from McCain, but that's really risky. For a start, Bloomberg isn't stupid, and can see that that's how things would come down as well. An Obama v. McCain contest should come down to an Obama win, as the Independent voters break for Obama, he picks up most of the Democratic base (and remember, we're seeing more voters in the primary season than we have ever seen, and the last four years have seen a record migration into the Democratic party - if the next Democratic candidate can pull a new coalition together, it will probably define the Democratic party for the next generation, in the same way that Reagan defined a generation of Republicans), and McCain is left with the Republican Establishment backing him, sans a lot of the Conservatives. And McCain might pick up a bunch of votes from racist democrats as well (although he loses that if he goes for a black conservative veep).
I'll list my polling and electoral math sources in the next part. Also, I'm making the standard Live Boy / Dead Girl assumptions, that no one is nailed with a truly base-destroying attack, that each of the candidates understands their own appeal well enough that there isn't any news that could be released by an opponent that would reduce the support they've got in their own constituencies.
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no subject
Date: 2008-02-26 10:35 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-02-26 11:38 pm (UTC)Not necessarily. There are some positions which are popular with both the base and the independents; for example, if he convincingly moves right on immigration, that would also be popular among independents, and yet would be something the Democrat couldn't outbid him on. He's started on this, with his promise at CPAC not to move on
amnesty"comprehensive immigration reform" until there's "consensus" that the border is secure. He could go further, by, f'r'ex, promising a Big Fucking Fence, and/or stiff employer sanctions (with teeth), and promising to veto "comprehensive" until those measures are actually enacted and stand up in court.It wouldn't even be hypocritical for him. His goal was a reprise of the '86 deal: Amnesty for illegals here, with strong measures to stop illegal immigration going forward. The problem is, in '86 the amnesty happened, but the "strong measures" got bottled up in court until they ended up being meaningless; restrictionists fear that would happen again. McCain has said that he gets that, that people don't have faith that any such bargain would actually be kept, and that that's why he now favors enforcement/security first,
amnesty"comprehensiveness" later.There are other ways he can solidify the right without alienating the middle. Beating the spending/pork barrel drum, for example. Making the right promises on judges (I don't think anyone is claiming that Bush's judges have cost him popularity in the center, and they're the one thing the right is happiest about with him). Getting slimed by the New York Times (check!).
On top of which, he's a genuine war hero. That counts for a lot with the right wing. There's a limit to how angry we troglodytes can stay with anyone who put in a five year stint at the Hanoi Hilton. It isn't enough to make us vote for someone we disagree with on the issues (sorry, George McGovern), but it is enough to keep us from staying home in a snit when someone we mostly agree with does things to piss us off.
Really, I think McCain's biggest strength is that he's a squishy conservative, and Obama is a solid, down-the-line liberal. And in this country, "conservative" is more popular--witness the fact that every Republican presidential candidate always claims to be a conservative, however squishy a centrist he may be, but every Democrat always claims to be a moderate (or "post-partisan" or "beyond labels"), however liberal he is.
Which is why I'm feeling pretty good about this race. It's going to be tough, yes. But Obama has all sorts of big soft targets that Hillary can't go after (his hard-left votes on guns and abortion, for example), and McCain is going to open up on him. And if he doesn't, well, a few 527s will pick up the slack.
no subject
Date: 2008-02-26 11:41 pm (UTC)Well...
Date: 2008-02-26 11:56 pm (UTC)Note that if McCain is elected, and leaves the party before he's sworn in, you win. (Wouldn't put it past him...)
Stakes: One six-pack of bog-standard Import/Microbrew beer (something in the general Anchor Steam/Becks price realm).
Done?
Re: Well...
Date: 2008-02-26 11:58 pm (UTC)