Flying Cars...

[xthread]

Some predictions for the next thirty years.

1. We will identify an extrasolar object that is almost certainly life-bearing, as evidenced by being within the habitable zone of some other star, and has high concentrations of O2 in it's atmosphere. No, I have no idea whatsoever what telescopy advancements will allow us to determine that the atmosphere of an extrasolar object has large amounts of free oxygen. I am not an astronomer.
   
2. We will find methods to cure type 1 and type 2 diabetes. There have been a lot of extremely exciting research results released in the last six months, I expect that we'll see those results pay off as we make the leap from lab to hospital.
   
3. We will still not have flying cars. Ok, that one's a cheap shot, we may actually have flying cars, there are running prototypes now, but they're ferociously expensive. I'm also tempted to make other snide predictions like 'we will not be using IPv6,' but that's also just an inflammatory cheap shot.
   
4. We will not see a global economic or environmental collapse of the first world. We will see significant environmental damage from global climate changes. We definitely will see a northern arctic freight passage, and I'll be surprised if we don't see human habitation of the Arctic. As zunger points out, this will be geopolitically... interesting. <cheap shot> especially when large petroleum reserves are discovered in the arctic</cheap shot>
   

Comments

[oldtdevil.livejournal.com]

5. Windows will still suck, but we'll use it anyway.

[palecur.livejournal.com]

What, nothing about aging reversal? There is some exciting stuff going on in that field; I am keeping a very interested eye on the Methuselah Mouse (http://www.methuselahmouse.org/) prize.

[unseelie23.livejournal.com]

I think the best argument against flying cars is that everyone else would have one too.

[jeffpaulsen.livejournal.com]

Everything will continue to get cheaper, except for labor and health care.

Most cars will be smaller and plugin-only electric. When you need long range and/or big cargo, you will rent a trailer with a diesel genset in it. The trailer can pull its own weight and handle its own braking, so it's not even clear that you 're truly "towing" it.

Appliances will be increasingly durable.

What will people do with all the spare money these advance give them? People will buy larger and larger houses to store the pointless crap they will buy more and more of.

[gravitrue.livejournal.com]

I haven't run the numbers, but between the debt and the aging population, it seems entirely possible to me that the US (though not the entire first world) will enter some sort of major economic difficulty like what Japan and Argentina have experienced. And we will whine more loudly than any time since the gas crisis/Viet Nam/Watergate era, and maybe louder than that.

I also expect some oil shocks along the lines of the early 70s gas crisis.

Solar power seems poised to make real progress; plants are all running at capacity. It dodges the NIMBY power plant problem, and can usually be made to pay for itself. It's a major financing opportunity for financial institutions and they can probably get government loan guarantees and subsidies in the bargain.

Screw the flying cars, I want biodiesel hybrids or straight electric (off of solar, wind, or tidal chargers of course) with carbon fiber bodies that don't need human drivers. Every commuter with time to read and not stress out. No more soccer moms needed for getting kids shuttled around. Mass transit that doesn't stop running at night. No drunk drivers. Road capacity increased by a factor of five or ten by entrainment of vehicles. Vehicle fatality rates dropped 80% or more. We could be saving three or four September 11's worth of people every single year. No middle east oil wars. Massively decreased carbon loading. Less private vehicle ownership required; a third of the vehicles in the nation could be public transit, and poor people and the disabled would no longer have second-class access to transit, improving both their quality of life and their economic productivity. Getting there is the trick; it's too big a project to convert quickly, but running both systems in parallel is much more difficult than a straight from-scratch implementation.

Can't believe I forgot these.

[palecur.livejournal.com]

Fusion power will be 30 years away from practical implementation.
Duke Nukem Forever still won't be released.

Predictions

[a-steep-hill.livejournal.com]

World production of oil and natural gas will have peaked, probably decades in the past.

Coal may well have peaked, on a net-BTU's basis if not on a total tonnage basis. But if we're still pursuing coal as a primary energy source, then the falsification of xthread's fourth prediction is only a matter of time.

Incidentally, what counts as "collapse"? Does it require mass starvation and infrastructure failure, and a 90% reduction in population? That's probably not going to happen.

Does it count as "collapse" if the symptoms are a pattern of monotonic decrease in biodiversity, agricultural production, available fresh water, standard of living, average income, and political freedom over a period lasting longer than our lifetime?

[gomijacogeo.livejournal.com]

Generalisimo Francisco Franco will still be dead.

Saturday Night Live will be in its 62nd season.

It will be widely reported that Fidel Castro is in ill health.

[seathan.livejournal.com]

You will still have the right to remain silent, but only on Tuesdays when Bush the XXIII is out of country on state business.

[saffroncisco.livejournal.com]

Nice to meet you this evening! You have been friended...